Guayaquil: Valerio Aboian vs Hugo Dellien

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Dellien (50%) · Hugo Dellien at 100¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 7

Valerio Aboian<1¢Hugo Dellien>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hugo Dellien

Consensus Traders

Hugo Dellien 50%

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralHugo Dellien at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Dellien

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Valerio Aboian0%

Hugo Dellien100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hugo Dellien7 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares24,712

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Valerio Aboian7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares18,248

Combined PnL-$876.45

Hugo Dellien — 50%Valerio Aboian — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Hugo Dellienavg 80.5¢	$9.3K	$10.4K	+$1.1K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Hugo Dellienavg 64.8¢	$5.5K	$6.6K	+$1.2K	51% 116-112 (228)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Hugo Dellienavg 79.5¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$218.8	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Valerio Aboianavg 25.7¢	$4.1K	$3.2K	-$903.76	38% 499-813 (1312)
TH thestingsnake	Hugo Dellienavg 91.9¢	$875.48	$927.2	+$67.27	60% 4079-2748 (6827)
OM omnibus-076daa	Hugo Dellienavg 83.6¢	$694.57	$815.57	+$121	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123	Hugo Dellienavg 70.3¢	$336.78	$376.02	+$39.25	59% 59-41 (100)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 7.8¢	$1.5K	$211.59	+$100.11	53% 668-589 (1257)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 33¢	$133.39	$86.91	-$46.48	82% 1690-365 (2055)
VeryLucky888<$100	Hugo Dellienavg 79¢	$75.54	$75.06	-$0.48	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
TRCMCTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 26¢	$3.12	$2.94	-$0.18	55% 3955-3185 (7140)
RN1CTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 4.2¢	$1.75	$0.63	-$1.13	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 35.9¢	$18.3	$0.36	-$17.94	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 36¢	$7.38	$0.31	-$7.07	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$9,314.28

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$5,477.55

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

116-112 (228)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$3,615.05

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$218.8

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$4,059.77

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$903.76

Record

38%

499-813 (1312)

thestingsnake

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$875.48

Value

$927.2

PnL

+$67.27

Record

60%

4079-2748 (6827)

omnibus-076daa

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$694.57

Value

$815.57

PnL

+$121

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

PLACEYOURBETS123

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$336.78

Value

$376.02

PnL

+$39.25

Record

59%

59-41 (100)

1lovejumpCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,512.27

Value

$211.59

PnL

+$100.11

Record

53%

668-589 (1257)

MrDoucheCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$133.39

Value

$86.91

PnL

-$46.48

Record

82%

1690-365 (2055)

VeryLucky888<$100

Hugo Dellien

Invested

$75.54

Value

$75.06

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

TRCMCTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$3.12

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$0.18

Record

55%

3955-3185 (7140)

RN1CTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1.75

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$1.13

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$18.3

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$17.94

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$7.38

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$7.07

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralHugo Dellien at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Dellien

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hugo Dellien wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.