Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will SC Austria Lustenau win on 2026-10-29?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 40¢ · $975 held · ended Oct 29

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$975.27

Combined PnL

$696.24

Smart Money Entry

12.9¢ → 40¢

+210% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$910.45

Total Shares2,276

Combined PnL+$723.35

No1 trader

Total Value$64.82

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$27.1

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Yesavg 12.5¢	$362	$868.15	+$703.8	56% 146-114 (260)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$91.92	$64.82	-$27.1	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$8.69	$26.73	+$18.04	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.1¢	$14.06	$15.56	+$1.51	54% 6137-5210 (11347)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Yes

Invested

$362

Value

$868.15

PnL

+$703.8

Record

56%

146-114 (260)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$91.92

Value

$64.82

PnL

-$27.1

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$18.04

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.06

Value

$15.56

PnL

+$1.51

Record

54%

6137-5210 (11347)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.