Spread: LASK Linz (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SV Oberbank Ried (80%) · SV Oberbank Ried at 54¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
SV Oberbank Ried
5
SV Oberbank Ried 80%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
-$26.46
56.1¢ → 54¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSV Oberbank Ried at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | LASK Linzavg 41.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$247.34 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ SV Oberbank Ried leg | SV Oberbank Riedavg 55¢ | $929.82 | $1.4K | +$431.91 | |
| └ LASK Linz leg | LASK Linzavg 41.5¢ | $1.3K | $602.67 | -$679.25 | |
RA rabbitfoot1 | SV Oberbank Riedavg 54¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$89.21 | 53% 1104-975 (2079) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | LASK Linzavg 45¢ | $755.15 | $821.83 | +$66.68 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
RO Rocko33 | SV Oberbank Riedavg 83¢ | $200 | $193.98 | -$6.02 | 64% 997-567 (1564) |
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004 | SV Oberbank Riedavg 53¢ | $211.99 | $51.02 | +$1 | 56% 140-110 (250) |
 HRTrading<$100 | SV Oberbank Riedavg 53.5¢ | $2.14 | $3.24 | +$1.1 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$2,211.74
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$247.34
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,605.78
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$89.21
Record
53%
1104-975 (2079)
Invested
$755.15
Value
$821.83
PnL
+$66.68
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$200
Value
$193.98
PnL
-$6.02
Record
64%
997-567 (1564)
Invested
$211.99
Value
$51.02
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
140-110 (250)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.