Will SC Rheindorf Altach win on 2026-10-27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 61¢ · $728 held · ended Oct 27

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$728.49

Combined PnL

$68.96

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 61¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$616.49

Total Shares951

Combined PnL+$82.96

No1 trader

Total Value$112

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$14

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LS LSB1	Yesavg 82.9¢	$332.57	$371.19	+$38.63	80% 2639-663 (3302)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 36¢	$192.24	$234.96	+$42.72	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 63¢	$126	$112	-$14	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.78	$5.94	+$2.16	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 49.5¢	$4.95	$4.4	-$0.55	54% 6002-5094 (11096)

LSB1

Yes

Invested

$332.57

Value

$371.19

PnL

+$38.63

Record

80%

2639-663 (3302)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$192.24

Value

$234.96

PnL

+$42.72

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$126

Value

$112

PnL

-$14

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$2.16

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

6002-5094 (11096)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.