Will WSG Tirol win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $892 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$892.03
-$4.55
51.1¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 51.5¢ | $611.84 | $599.86 | -$11.98 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 50¢ | $205.41 | $199.25 | -$6.16 | 47% 2405-2690 (5095) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $67.2 | $79.83 | +$12.63 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $8.63 | $9.66 | +$1.03 | 49% 18600-19021 (37621) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.43 | -$0.08 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $1 | $1.01 | +$0.01 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
Invested
$611.84
Value
$599.86
PnL
-$11.98
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$205.41
Value
$199.25
PnL
-$6.16
Record
47%
2405-2690 (5095)
Invested
$67.2
Value
$79.83
PnL
+$12.63
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$9.66
PnL
+$1.03
Record
49%
18600-19021 (37621)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.43
PnL
-$0.08
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.