First Vienna FC 1894 vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 3.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 66¢ · $954 held · ends Oct 27

Over35¢Under65¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$953.7

Combined PnL

$12.16

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 65.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$481.86

Total Shares964

Combined PnL-$108.99

Over3 traders

Total Value$471.85

Total Shares944

Combined PnL+$121.16

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA Saber-greed	Underavg 61.2¢	$560.46	$457.98	-$102.48	59% 2505-1737 (4242)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Overavg 37¢	$278.48	$376.33	+$97.85	50% 2443-2433 (4876)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 38.6¢	$53.96	$69.9	+$15.93	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 35.6¢	$18.25	$25.63	+$7.38	59% 44243-30611 (74854)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 63.6¢	$30.39	$23.88	-$6.52	50% 24101-23732 (47833)

Saber-greed

Under

Invested

$560.46

Value

$457.98

PnL

-$102.48

Record

59%

2505-1737 (4242)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Over

Invested

$278.48

Value

$376.33

PnL

+$97.85

Record

50%

2443-2433 (4876)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.96

Value

$69.9

PnL

+$15.93

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.25

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$7.38

Record

59%

44243-30611 (74854)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$30.39

Value

$23.88

PnL

-$6.52

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.