Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SK Rapid Wien, while the market favors First Vienna FC 1894 (61%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: SK Rapid Wien (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold SK Rapid Wien (50%) · SK Rapid Wien at 39¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

SK Rapid Wien39¢First Vienna FC 189461¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SK Rapid Wien

Consensus Traders

SK Rapid Wien 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$500.23

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 39¢

-32% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralSK Rapid Wien at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SK Rapid Wien

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors First Vienna FC 1894 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SK Rapid Wien39%

First Vienna FC 189461%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SK Rapid Wien2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,744

Combined PnL-$502.44

First Vienna FC 18942 traders

Total Value$45.48

Total Shares75

Combined PnL+$2.22

SK Rapid Wien — 50%First Vienna FC 1894 — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	SK Rapid Wienavg 57.3¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$501.34	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
HRTrading<$100	First Vienna FC 1894avg 58¢	$35.78	$37.66	+$1.88	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
SN SnakeBall<$100	First Vienna FC 1894avg 58.4¢	$7.48	$7.82	+$0.34	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	SK Rapid Wienavg 50¢	$5	$3.9	-$1.1	59% 44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostCTR

SK Rapid Wien

Invested

$1,567.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$501.34

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

HRTrading<$100

First Vienna FC 1894

Invested

$35.78

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$1.88

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

SnakeBall<$100

First Vienna FC 1894

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

SK Rapid Wien

Invested

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$1.1

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Research grade

NeutralSK Rapid Wien at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

SK Rapid Wien

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors First Vienna FC 1894 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SK Rapid Wien wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.