Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.4K
-$28.23
84.9¢ → 98¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 85.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.78 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $44.88 | $63.31 | +$18.43 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 33.2¢ | $117.85 | $51.81 | -$66.04 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $27.17 | $19.82 | -$7.35 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $8.15 | $8.1 | -$0.05 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
Invested
$1,193.16
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.78
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$44.88
Value
$63.31
PnL
+$18.43
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$117.85
Value
$51.81
PnL
-$66.04
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$27.17
Value
$19.82
PnL
-$7.35
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$8.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.