Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will RZ Pellets Wolfsberger AC win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 34¢ · $489 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$488.69
-$92.39
40.6¢ → 34¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 40.6¢ | $561.8 | $470.04 | -$91.76 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $18.72 | $18.12 | -$0.6 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $0.56 | $0.53 | -$0.03 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.