Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Hertha Wels vs. RZ Pellets Wolfsberger AC: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.5K
-$693.12
50.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 56.5¢ | $913.78 | $955 | +$0.75 | 59% 2512-1739 (4251) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 83¢ | $391.76 | $431.88 | +$40.12 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 43.5¢ | $131.39 | $129.73 | -$1.66 | 50% 24829-24525 (49354) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.43 | +$0.02 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $1.18 | $1.14 | -$0.04 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 44.4¢ | $733.14 | $0.83 | -$732.32 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
Invested
$913.78
Value
$955
PnL
+$0.75
Record
59%
2512-1739 (4251)
Invested
$391.76
Value
$431.88
PnL
+$40.12
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$131.39
Value
$129.73
PnL
-$1.66
Record
50%
24829-24525 (49354)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.18
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$733.14
Value
$0.83
PnL
-$732.32
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.