Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$3.9K
-$54.37
52.7¢ → 52¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 52.6¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$21.89 | 50% 11938-12086 (24024) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 52.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$19.65 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 53¢ | $650.87 | $638.59 | -$12.28 | 50% 2443-2433 (4876) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $29.15 | $28.6 | -$0.55 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
Invested
$1,948.53
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$21.89
Record
50%
11938-12086 (24024)
Invested
$1,360.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$19.65
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$650.87
Value
$638.59
PnL
-$12.28
Record
50%
2443-2433 (4876)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$29.15
Value
$28.6
PnL
-$0.55
Record
54%
2558-2193 (4751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.