Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will San Martin de Tucuman win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 25¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 1

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$64.92

Combined PnL

-$0.16

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$54.75

Total Shares75

Combined PnL+$1.13

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.17

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$1.29

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 72¢	$54	$54.75	+$1.13	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$4.46	$4	-$0.46	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$5.1	$3.5	-$0.04	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$3.73	$2.67	-$0.79	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$54.75

PnL

+$1.13

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

PnL

-$0.46

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.