Will CA Colegiales win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$5.87

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 70.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$149.17

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$7.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$43.95

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$1.34

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 36.6¢	$755.48	$735.46	-$20.01	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.6¢	$440.56	$415.69	-$24.87
└ No leg	Noavg 64.5¢	$314.91	$319.77	+$4.86
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$368.53	$374.17	+$5.64	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.3¢	$241.56	$276.07	+$34.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.3¢	$126.98	$98.1	-$28.88
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63.7¢	$273.79	$134.79	+$5.8	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$42.48	$41.3	-$0.59	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$11.12	$12.53	+$1.41	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$3.4	$2.65	-$0.75	54% 6435-5416 (11851)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.86	-$0	49% 13032-13607 (26639)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$755.48

Value

$735.46

PnL

-$20.01

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$440.5636.6¢-$24.87

No$314.9164.5¢+$4.86

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$368.53

Value

$374.17

PnL

+$5.64

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

No$241.5664.3¢+$34.51

Yes$126.9834.3¢-$28.88

VeryLucky888

Invested

$273.79

Value

$134.79

PnL

+$5.8

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.48

Value

$41.3

PnL

-$0.59

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.12

Value

$12.53

PnL

+$1.41

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.