Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will San Martin de San Juan win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.1¢ · $86 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$85.99
-$124.51
27.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 31¢ | $63.89 | $38.54 | -$25.35 | 51% 1685-1650 (3335) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 68.9¢ | $22.58 | $31.51 | +$8.93 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.9¢ | $68.74 | $9.38 | -$59.37 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.98 | +$0.63 | 54% 6304-5335 (11639) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.2¢ | $9.66 | $0.94 | -$8.73 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $41.28 | $0.67 | -$40.61 | 59% 2560-1793 (4353) |
us391CTRInvested
$63.89
Value
$38.54
PnL
-$25.35
Record
51%
1685-1650 (3335)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$22.58
Value
$31.51
PnL
+$8.93
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$68.74
Value
$9.38
PnL
-$59.37
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
6304-5335 (11639)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$8.73
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$41.28
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$40.61
Record
59%
2560-1793 (4353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.