Will CA Guemes vs. CA Temperley end in a draw?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $415 held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$415.24

Combined PnL

$34.58

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$411.04

Total Shares411

Combined PnL+$34.91

No2 traders

Total Value$4.2

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.33

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 80.9¢	$215.56	$240.3	+$24.74	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 94¢	$160.57	$170.74	+$10.16	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.75	$4.2	+$0.45	54% 6304-5335 (11639)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.78	$0	-$0.78	59% 10257-7240 (17497)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$215.56

Value

$240.3

PnL

+$24.74

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$160.57

Value

$170.74

PnL

+$10.16

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

6304-5335 (11639)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

PnL

-$0.78

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.