Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Deportivo Madryn win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 44¢ · $624 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$623.69
$2.2
45.2¢ → 43.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 45.8¢ | $328.62 | $317.99 | -$10.63 | 50% 25028-24763 (49791) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.8¢ | $225.62 | $214.07 | -$11.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56¢ | $103 | $103.92 | +$0.92 | |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Noavg 45.4¢ | $110.81 | $109.93 | -$0.89 | 54% 4876-4103 (8979) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $73.76 | $76.59 | +$2.83 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $69.75 | $69.75 | +$0 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $4.18 | $4.44 | +$0.26 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
Invested
$328.62
Value
$317.99
PnL
-$10.63
Record
50%
25028-24763 (49791)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.81
Value
$109.93
PnL
-$0.89
Record
54%
4876-4103 (8979)
Invested
$73.76
Value
$76.59
PnL
+$2.83
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$69.75
Value
$69.75
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
Invested
$45
Value
$45
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.18
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.