Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 14 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-10-31?

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 47¢ · $51K held · ended Oct 31

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.0K

Combined PnL

$605.05

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 46.5¢

-6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares33,514

Combined PnL+$478.4

No14 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares34,928

Combined PnL+$126.64

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDele	Yesavg 50.1¢	$16.1K	$16.6K	+$450.94	46% 34-40 (74)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$15.0K	$15.5K	+$508.56	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	-$84.1
└ No leg	Noavg 47.1¢	$6.3K	$6.9K	+$592.66
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 49.6¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$214.41	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 47.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$104.22	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$60	47% 2526-2824 (5350)
us391CTR	Noavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$59.4	51% 1689-1654 (3343)
sapupuCTR	Noavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.31	58% 73-53 (126)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 49.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$41.96	52% 4737-4457 (9194)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$32.64	50% 2521-2503 (5024)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 50¢	$605.37	$623.53	+$18.16	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$599.03	$611.38	+$12.36	57% 1755-1309 (3064)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.5¢	$348.53	$348.36	-$0.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$250.5	$263.03	+$12.53
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 49.7¢	$435.86	$451.81	+$15.95	53% 15998-14180 (30178)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 48.7¢	$593.8	$412	+$24.2	58% 42088-30563 (72651)
RN1	Yesavg 50¢	$357	$367.71	+$10.71	54% 56713-48922 (105635)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 47.6¢	$123.18	$130.67	+$7.49	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 49.8¢	$118.64	$122.59	+$3.95	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$70.5	$75.75	+$5.25	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$43.42	$45.64	+$2.22	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$50	$44.73	-$5.27	67% 23363-11755 (35118)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$41	$42.23	+$1.23	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$34.84	$34.51	-$0.34	50% 7037-7035 (14072)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$26.04	$28.18	+$2.14	52% 13824-12612 (26436)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.82	$2.73	-$0.09	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

DelidelaDele

Yes

Invested

$16,125.48

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$450.94

Record

46%

34-40 (74)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$15,037.06

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$508.56

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

Both legs:

Yes$8,753.8549¢-$84.1

No$6,283.2147.1¢+$592.66

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$5,527.35

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$214.41

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,339.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$104.22

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$60

Record

47%

2526-2824 (5350)

us391CTR

Invested

$1,980

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$59.4

Record

51%

1689-1654 (3343)

sapupuCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.31

Record

58%

73-53 (126)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$1,339.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$41.96

Record

52%

4737-4457 (9194)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$1,088.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$32.64

Record

50%

2521-2503 (5024)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$605.37

Value

$623.53

PnL

+$18.16

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$599.03

Value

$611.38

PnL

+$12.36

Record

57%

1755-1309 (3064)

Both legs:

No$348.5347.5¢-$0.17

Yes$250.550¢+$12.53

CannaeCTR

Invested

$435.86

Value

$451.81

PnL

+$15.95

Record

53%

15998-14180 (30178)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$593.8

Value

$412

PnL

+$24.2

Record

58%

42088-30563 (72651)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$357

Value

$367.71

PnL

+$10.71

Record

54%

56713-48922 (105635)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$123.18

Value

$130.67

PnL

+$7.49

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$118.64

Value

$122.59

PnL

+$3.95

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.5

Value

$75.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.42

Value

$45.64

PnL

+$2.22

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$44.73

PnL

-$5.27

Record

67%

23363-11755 (35118)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41

Value

$42.23

PnL

+$1.23

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.84

Value

$34.51

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

7037-7035 (14072)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.04

Value

$28.18

PnL

+$2.14

Record

52%

13824-12612 (26436)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.