CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $641 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$640.6
$85.45
73.3¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 82¢ | $205.31 | $250.25 | +$44.94 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 79.8¢ | $189.29 | $218.61 | +$29.32 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 41¢ | $47.15 | $114.94 | +$67.79 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 76.9¢ | $28.89 | $37.55 | +$8.66 | 59% 10341-7332 (17673) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $18.49 | $19.11 | -$0.15 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Underavg 18.8¢ | $38.8 | $0.1 | -$38.7 | 67% 23397-11771 (35168) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.7¢ | $26.45 | $0.03 | -$26.42 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
RN1Invested
$205.31
Value
$250.25
PnL
+$44.94
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
$189.29
Value
$218.61
PnL
+$29.32
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Invested
$47.15
Value
$114.94
PnL
+$67.79
Record
50%
7049-7061 (14110)
poshposh<$100Invested
$28.89
Value
$37.55
PnL
+$8.66
Record
59%
10341-7332 (17673)
Invested
$18.49
Value
$19.11
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
16036-14210 (30246)
Invested
$38.8
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$38.7
Record
67%
23397-11771 (35168)
Invested
$26.45
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$26.42
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.