Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $58K held · ended Oct 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.2K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 98.3¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$54.4K

Total Shares54,930

Combined PnL+$5.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$113.72

Total Shares924

Combined PnL-$81.41

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 79.3¢	$31.5K	$35.1K	+$3.6K	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
RN1	Noavg 77.4¢	$10.1K	$11.5K	+$1.5K	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.5¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$93.02	50% 33606-33156 (66762)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$696.42	50% 25353-25122 (50475)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$696.42
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$415.57	$415.57	-$0
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$302.14	57% 1768-1328 (3096)
└ No leg	Noavg 87.5¢	$990.77	$928.24	-$62.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.4¢	$403.95	$394.41	-$239.61
GR graziek99	Noavg 98.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$1.05	87% 402-60 (462)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$825.59	$788.09	-$37.5	49% 12788-13237 (26025)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.1¢	$729.81	$629.01	-$100.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.8¢	$95.78	$159.08	+$63.3
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 87.5¢	$251.86	$253.06	+$1.21	52% 13853-12630 (26483)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 99¢	$123.75	$102.5	-$21.25	50% 19294-19658 (38952)
HRTrading	Noavg 82.9¢	$128.66	$87.59	-$41.08	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$50.21	$48.81	-$1.41	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$44.04	$39.29	-$1.48	53% 16036-14210 (30246)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20.41	$18.37	-$2.04	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 99¢	$20	$16.57	-$3.43	67% 23397-11771 (35168)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 20.6¢	$105.41	$7.26	-$76.49	58% 42202-30652 (72854)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$31,480.49

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

RN1

Invested

$10,054.87

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

SnakeBall

Invested

$6,125.1

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$93.02

Record

50%

33606-33156 (66762)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,634.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$696.42

Record

50%

25353-25122 (50475)

Both legs:

Yes$1,21918.7¢-$696.42

No$415.5782¢-$0

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,394.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$302.14

Record

57%

1768-1328 (3096)

Both legs:

No$990.7787.5¢-$62.53

Yes$403.9518.4¢-$239.61

graziek99

Invested

$1,029.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$1.05

Record

87%

402-60 (462)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$825.59

Value

$788.09

PnL

-$37.5

Record

49%

12788-13237 (26025)

Both legs:

No$729.8195.1¢-$100.8

Yes$95.7810.8¢+$63.3

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$251.86

Value

$253.06

PnL

+$1.21

Record

52%

13853-12630 (26483)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$123.75

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$21.25

Record

50%

19294-19658 (38952)

HRTrading

Invested

$128.66

Value

$87.59

PnL

-$41.08

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.21

Value

$48.81

PnL

-$1.41

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.04

Value

$39.29

PnL

-$1.48

Record

53%

16036-14210 (30246)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.41

Value

$18.37

PnL

-$2.04

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$16.57

PnL

-$3.43

Record

67%

23397-11771 (35168)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.41

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$76.49

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.