Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$1.4K
-$13.7
83.1¢ → 86.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $632.94 | $567.67 | -$65.26 | 57% 1768-1328 (3096) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 71.8¢ | $431.44 | $481.99 | +$50.55 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $98.6 | $98.6 | +$0 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $89.8 | $92.96 | +$3.16 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $41.8 | $37.24 | -$4.56 | 52% 13853-12630 (26483) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $36.63 | $30.6 | -$6.03 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $29.29 | $29.29 | +$0 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.55 | $12.75 | +$10.2 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $8.75 | $7 | -$1.75 | 76% 4105-1297 (5402) |
oieshfn345Invested
$632.94
Value
$567.67
PnL
-$65.26
Record
57%
1768-1328 (3096)
Invested
$431.44
Value
$481.99
PnL
+$50.55
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$98.6
Value
$98.6
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
RN1<$100Invested
$89.8
Value
$92.96
PnL
+$3.16
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
$41.8
Value
$37.24
PnL
-$4.56
Record
52%
13853-12630 (26483)
Invested
$36.63
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$6.03
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Invested
$29.29
Value
$29.29
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$10.2
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$7
PnL
-$1.75
Record
76%
4105-1297 (5402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.