CD Riestra vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 79¢ · $440 held · ended Oct 31

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$439.75

Combined PnL

$34.55

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 79¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$369.74

Total Shares521

Combined PnL+$17.58

Over3 traders

Total Value$70

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$16.97

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 67¢	$268	$288	+$20	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 69.6¢	$78.94	$77.74	-$1.2	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$33.65	$48.08	+$14.42	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$15.51	$16.07	+$0.55	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$3.87	$5.86	+$1.99	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$5.22	$4	-$1.22	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$268

Value

$288

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$78.94

Value

$77.74

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.65

Value

$48.08

PnL

+$14.42

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.51

Value

$16.07

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.87

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$1.99

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.22

Value

PnL

-$1.22

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.