Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Riestra vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 41¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$9.0K
$114.85
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986CTR | Underavg 39.9¢ | $8.0K | $8.1K | +$123.6 | 49% 152-157 (309) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 61.3¢ | $367.5 | $360 | -$7.5 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Overavg 60¢ | $360 | $360 | -$0 | 54% 4878-4108 (8986) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 60¢ | $120.63 | $119.62 | -$1.01 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 60.6¢ | $73.28 | $72.6 | -$0.68 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Overavg 59.5¢ | $52.36 | $52.8 | +$0.44 | 51% 6501-6162 (12663) |
Invested
$7,958.2
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$123.6
Record
49%
152-157 (309)
VeryLucky888Invested
$367.5
Value
$360
PnL
-$7.5
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
Invested
$360
Value
$360
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
4878-4108 (8986)
HRTradingInvested
$120.63
Value
$119.62
PnL
-$1.01
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
Invested
$73.28
Value
$72.6
PnL
-$0.68
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
Invested
$52.36
Value
$52.8
PnL
+$0.44
Record
51%
6501-6162 (12663)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.