Will CA Talleres win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$305.57

Smart Money Entry

31.8¢ → 72.5¢

+128% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL+$325.66

No5 traders

Total Value$496.24

Total Shares979

Combined PnL-$20.09

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDele	Yesavg 30¢	$535.12	$597.55	+$62.43	46% 34-40 (74)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 33.9¢	$197.01	$379.54	+$163.83	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 69¢	$348.37	$345.62	-$2.75	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 38.4¢	$109.77	$207.35	+$97.58	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 70¢	$137.68	$127.47	-$10.21	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$20.08	$21.69	+$1.62	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$16.5	$16.75	+$0.25	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$12.35	$4.98	-$7.37	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$2.03	$2.23	+$0.2	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$1.43	$1.42	-$0.01	67% 23351-11752 (35103)

DelidelaDele

Yes

Invested

$535.12

Value

$597.55

PnL

+$62.43

Record

46%

34-40 (74)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$197.01

Value

$379.54

PnL

+$163.83

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$348.37

Value

$345.62

PnL

-$2.75

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$109.77

Value

$207.35

PnL

+$97.58

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$137.68

Value

$127.47

PnL

-$10.21

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.08

Value

$21.69

PnL

+$1.62

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$12.35

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$7.37

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.01

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.