Will CD Riestra win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 95¢ · $271 held · ended Oct 31

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$270.97

Combined PnL

$11.5

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 94.5¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$223.42

Total Shares244

Combined PnL+$44.82

Yes6 traders

Total Value$47.55

Total Shares344

Combined PnL-$33.32

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 68¢	$108.12	$150.26	+$42.15	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 92¢	$50.95	$49.96	-$0.99	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$34.99	$31.53	-$3.45	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Noavg 56¢	$19.53	$23.2	+$3.66	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$12.03	$6.87	-$5.16	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$28.11	$6.06	-$22.05	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.64	$1.48	-$0.16	67% 23351-11752 (35103)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$3.05	$1.4	-$1.65	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.05	$0.21	-$0.84	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$108.12

Value

$150.26

PnL

+$42.15

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$50.95

Value

$49.96

PnL

-$0.99

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.99

Value

$31.53

PnL

-$3.45

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Invested

$19.53

Value

$23.2

PnL

+$3.66

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.03

Value

$6.87

PnL

-$5.16

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.11

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$22.05

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.16

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.