Will CD Riestra vs. CA Talleres end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 78¢ · $872 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$872.18
-$19.51
69.7¢ → 77.5¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 74¢ | $343.73 | $341.41 | -$2.32 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67¢ | $328.3 | $318.5 | -$9.8 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
FO foooool | Noavg 67¢ | $123.95 | $143.38 | -$0.92 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $34.25 | +$0.75 | 52% 13817-12605 (26422) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $23.1 | $16.45 | -$6.65 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $12.06 | $11.7 | -$0.36 | 54% 4896-4121 (9017) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $6.5 | -$0.2 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
oieshfn345Invested
$343.73
Value
$341.41
PnL
-$2.32
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
Invested
$328.3
Value
$318.5
PnL
-$9.8
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$123.95
Value
$143.38
PnL
-$0.92
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$34.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
13817-12605 (26422)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$16.45
PnL
-$6.65
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$12.06
Value
$11.7
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
4896-4121 (9017)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.