Racing Club vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$189.41

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 99.5¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,085

Combined PnL-$569.8

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,829

Combined PnL+$380.39

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 86¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$399	81% 2459-560 (3019)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 86.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$125.7	50% 33256-32807 (66063)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 19.4¢	$420.29	$604.66	+$184.37	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 83.4¢	$480.33	$456.58	-$23.74	49% 12528-12922 (25450)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 26.7¢	$455.54	$451.57	-$3.97	50% 24930-24652 (49582)
RN1CTR	Underavg 17.1¢	$251.4	$418.58	+$167.18	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 52¢	$311.82	$339.85	+$30.03	58% 41637-30243 (71880)
poshposh	Overavg 87.7¢	$223.2	$227.17	+$3.97	59% 10038-7001 (17039)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 48¢	$250.9	$224.76	-$26.14	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 40¢	$10.7	$11.51	+$0.8	50% 3399-3335 (6734)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 7.9¢	$6.07	$8.85	+$2.78	38% 3323-5440 (8763)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$2,366.51

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$399

Record

81%

2459-560 (3019)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,700.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$125.7

Record

50%

33256-32807 (66063)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$420.29

Value

$604.66

PnL

+$184.37

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$480.33

Value

$456.58

PnL

-$23.74

Record

49%

12528-12922 (25450)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$455.54

Value

$451.57

PnL

-$3.97

Record

50%

24930-24652 (49582)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$251.4

Value

$418.58

PnL

+$167.18

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$311.82

Value

$339.85

PnL

+$30.03

Record

58%

41637-30243 (71880)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$223.2

Value

$227.17

PnL

+$3.97

Record

59%

10038-7001 (17039)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$250.9

Value

$224.76

PnL

-$26.14

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$10.7

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

3399-3335 (6734)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.07

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$2.78

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.