Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Racing Club vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 16¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$29.56

Smart Money Entry

35.2¢ → 15.5¢

-56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$783.23

Total Shares2,065

Combined PnL+$26.86

No8 traders

Total Value$294.74

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$2.7

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 38.7¢	$357.15	$374	+$16.85	50% 24930-24652 (49582)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$228.71	$239.06	+$10.35	57% 1682-1265 (2947)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$118.51	$116.14	-$2.37	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$85.83	$84.48	-$1.35	38% 3323-5440 (8763)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$69.39	$63.58	-$5.81	52% 13748-12549 (26297)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$49.2	$51.58	+$2.37	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 61¢	$40.18	$48.54	+$8.7	45% 2053-2461 (4514)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$41.25	$41.53	+$0.27	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 75¢	$25.66	$25.83	+$0.17	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.23	$14.52	+$0.29	58% 41637-30243 (71880)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 74¢	$12.24	$12.49	+$0.25	53% 15910-14091 (30001)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.78	+$0.17	49% 12528-12922 (25450)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.45	-$0.35	58% 18605-13667 (32272)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$357.15

Value

$374

PnL

+$16.85

Record

50%

24930-24652 (49582)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$228.71

Value

$239.06

PnL

+$10.35

Record

57%

1682-1265 (2947)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.51

Value

$116.14

PnL

-$2.37

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$85.83

Value

$84.48

PnL

-$1.35

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$69.39

Value

$63.58

PnL

-$5.81

Record

52%

13748-12549 (26297)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.2

Value

$51.58

PnL

+$2.37

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

poposub<$100

Invested

$40.18

Value

$48.54

PnL

+$8.7

Record

45%

2053-2461 (4514)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$41.25

Value

$41.53

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$25.66

Value

$25.83

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$14.23

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

41637-30243 (71880)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

15910-14091 (30001)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

12528-12922 (25450)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

18605-13667 (32272)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.