Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-10-30?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$36.09

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 85.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,951

Combined PnL+$41.88

Yes3 traders

Total Value$338.22

Total Shares1,842

Combined PnL-$5.78

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 83¢	$906.26	$890.32	-$15.94	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$659.5	$679.64	+$20.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17¢	$246.76	$210.68	-$36.08
VeryLucky888	Noavg 82.7¢	$827	$849.76	+$32.76	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
oieshfn345	Noavg 84¢	$356.84	$358.84	+$2	57% 1681-1260 (2941)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$297.99	$293.41	-$4.58	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
CA Cannae	Noavg 81¢	$153.88	$154.83	+$0.95	53% 15892-14085 (29977)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 85.6¢	$112.31	$111.59	-$0.73	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 82¢	$56.12	$58.86	+$2.74	56% 7074-5669 (12743)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 83¢	$53.95	$55.9	+$1.95	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81¢	$53.73	$54.68	+$0.95	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$45.11	$43.86	-$1.25	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 81¢	$22.68	$23.94	+$1.26	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.95	+$0.05	54% 6204-5263 (11467)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$906.26

Value

$890.32

PnL

-$15.94

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

Both legs:

No$659.583¢+$20.14

Yes$246.7617¢-$36.08

VeryLucky888

Invested

$827

Value

$849.76

PnL

+$32.76

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

oieshfn345

Invested

$356.84

Value

$358.84

PnL

+$2

Record

57%

1681-1260 (2941)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$297.99

Value

$293.41

PnL

-$4.58

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

Cannae

Invested

$153.88

Value

$154.83

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

15892-14085 (29977)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$112.31

Value

$111.59

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$56.12

Value

$58.86

PnL

+$2.74

Record

56%

7074-5669 (12743)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.95

Value

$55.9

PnL

+$1.95

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$53.73

Value

$54.68

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.11

Value

$43.86

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$22.68

Value

$23.94

PnL

+$1.26

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6204-5263 (11467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.