Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$3.5K
-$135.95
79¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$120 | 47% 2536-2833 (5369) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 78.9¢ | $371.4 | $357.87 | -$13.53 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $41.11 | $40.06 | -$1.05 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $46.7 | $31.4 | -$0.3 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 79.3¢ | $30 | $29.44 | -$0.56 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.71 | $7.42 | -$0.29 | 55% 7193-5787 (12980) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $5.64 | $5.43 | -$0.21 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
Invested
$3,160
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$120
Record
47%
2536-2833 (5369)
Invested
$371.4
Value
$357.87
PnL
-$13.53
Record
53%
16036-14210 (30246)
Invested
$41.11
Value
$40.06
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$46.7
Value
$31.4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$30
Value
$29.44
PnL
-$0.56
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.71
Value
$7.42
PnL
-$0.29
Record
55%
7193-5787 (12980)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.43
PnL
-$0.21
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.