Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$27.73
49.1¢ → 50¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 49¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$28.3 | 49% 244-257 (501) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 49.1¢ | $89.44 | $92.78 | +$3.34 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.1¢ | $52.35 | $53.32 | +$0.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $37.09 | $39.46 | +$2.37 | |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $28.68 | $28.12 | -$0.56 | 50% 33606-33156 (66762) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.