CA Sarmiento vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$3.6K
-$8.24
49.8¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$17.54 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $771.45 | $763.74 | -$7.71 | 52% 4713-4425 (9138) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $491.8 | $488.43 | -$3.37 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 52¢ | $312 | $297 | -$15 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 46¢ | $92 | $100 | +$2 | 50% 6969-6968 (13937) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $99.92 | $98.92 | -$1 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $70 | $69.3 | -$0.7 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
Invested
$1,754.46
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.54
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
Invested
$771.45
Value
$763.74
PnL
-$7.71
Record
52%
4713-4425 (9138)
Invested
$491.8
Value
$488.43
PnL
-$3.37
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$312
Value
$297
PnL
-$15
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$92
Value
$100
PnL
+$2
Record
50%
6969-6968 (13937)
Invested
$99.92
Value
$98.92
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$70
Value
$69.3
PnL
-$0.7
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.