Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-10-30?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$36.17
56.3¢ → 69¢
+23% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 47.8¢ | $312.62 | $317.02 | +$4.4 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 69¢ | $214.92 | $213.45 | -$1.47 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 69¢ | $207 | $207 | -$0 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $123.69 | $127.3 | +$2.44 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51¢ | $69.87 | $70.56 | +$0.69 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $53.82 | $56.74 | +$1.75 | |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 46¢ | $92 | $114 | +$22 | 54% 4865-4090 (8955) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $48.04 | $55.88 | +$7.84 | 51% 1674-1629 (3303) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $28.82 | $33.53 | +$4.71 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $19.84 | $19.65 | -$0.19 | 52% 13740-12542 (26282) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $11.73 | $11.14 | -$0.6 | 59% 30405-21110 (51515) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $6 | $5 | -$1 | 54% 6204-5263 (11467) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.36 | $2.83 | +$0.47 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
Invested
$312.62
Value
$317.02
PnL
+$4.4
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
Invested
$214.92
Value
$213.45
PnL
-$1.47
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$207
Value
$207
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
Invested
$123.69
Value
$127.3
PnL
+$2.44
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Both legs:
Invested
$92
Value
$114
PnL
+$22
Record
54%
4865-4090 (8955)
us391<$100Invested
$48.04
Value
$55.88
PnL
+$7.84
Record
51%
1674-1629 (3303)
Invested
$28.82
Value
$33.53
PnL
+$4.71
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$19.84
Value
$19.65
PnL
-$0.19
Record
52%
13740-12542 (26282)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$11.14
PnL
-$0.6
Record
59%
30405-21110 (51515)
Invested
$6
Value
$5
PnL
-$1
Record
54%
6204-5263 (11467)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.83
PnL
+$0.47
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Cannae
No — $317.02
UpTheBlues
No — $213.45
SnakeBall
No — $207
LeLynxMalynx
ARBArbitrage — excluded
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
No — $114
us391
No — $55.88
GoalLineGhost
No — $33.53
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
No — $19.65
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
No — $11.14
Betziko
No — $5