Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-10-30?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$21.32

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 84.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,474

Combined PnL+$30.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$27.45

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$9.45

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 80.4¢	$686.42	$734.44	+$48.02	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 72.7¢	$165.64	$182.99	+$17.35	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$132.93	$130.39	-$2.54	50% 24930-24652 (49582)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.4¢	$87.78	$87.93	+$0.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.6¢	$45.15	$42.46	-$2.68
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 78¢	$125.84	$112.12	-$13.71	54% 4869-4094 (8963)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 81¢	$128.14	$101.44	-$26.7	52% 13748-12549 (26297)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$82.91	$83.42	+$0.51	50% 33256-32807 (66063)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$36.9	$27.45	-$9.45	54% 6216-5267 (11483)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 57¢	$15.01	$18.3	+$3.29	38% 3323-5440 (8763)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 58¢	$11.31	$13.55	+$2.24	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.03	-$0.23	76% 4031-1269 (5300)

RN1

Invested

$686.42

Value

$734.44

PnL

+$48.02

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$165.64

Value

$182.99

PnL

+$17.35

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$132.93

Value

$130.39

PnL

-$2.54

Record

50%

24930-24652 (49582)

Both legs:

No$87.7882.4¢+$0.15

Yes$45.1518.6¢-$2.68

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$125.84

Value

$112.12

PnL

-$13.71

Record

54%

4869-4094 (8963)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$128.14

Value

$101.44

PnL

-$26.7

Record

52%

13748-12549 (26297)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$82.91

Value

$83.42

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

33256-32807 (66063)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.9

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$9.45

Record

54%

6216-5267 (11483)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$15.01

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$3.29

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.31

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$2.24

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.23

Record

76%

4031-1269 (5300)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.