CA Huracán vs. CA Tigre: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$12.36
67.1¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 64¢ | $632.9 | $637.6 | +$4.7 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 72.2¢ | $467.49 | $427.52 | -$39.97 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 30.8¢ | $312.22 | $359.02 | +$46.8 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 84.9¢ | $260.17 | $209.04 | -$51.13 | 50% 10792-10607 (21399) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84.9¢ | $210.22 | $159.78 | -$50.43 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 36¢ | $49.95 | $49.26 | -$0.69 | |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 66¢ | $200 | $133 | +$1 | 56% 7074-5669 (12743) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $24.46 | $24.46 | -$0 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $20.25 | $20.86 | +$0.61 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $6.6 | $6.1 | +$0.1 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.83 | $0.95 | -$0.88 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
Invested
$632.9
Value
$637.6
PnL
+$4.7
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$467.49
Value
$427.52
PnL
-$39.97
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
RN1CTRInvested
$312.22
Value
$359.02
PnL
+$46.8
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$260.17
Value
$209.04
PnL
-$51.13
Record
50%
10792-10607 (21399)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$200
Value
$133
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
7074-5669 (12743)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$24.46
Value
$24.46
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$20.25
Value
$20.86
PnL
+$0.61
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
Invested
$1.83
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$0.88
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.