CA Huracán vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$182.24

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 70¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,043

Combined PnL+$248.22

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,499

Combined PnL-$430.46

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$27.24	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 28.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$59.62	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
RN1	Overavg 71.7¢	$834.43	$819.99	-$14.44	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 36¢	$353.14	$588.57	+$235.43	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 56.5¢	$956.52	$457.44	-$499.08	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 37¢	$111	$120	+$9	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$101.51	$80.04	-$21.47	50% 10792-10607 (21399)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$49.68	$50.37	+$0.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$51.83	$29.67	-$22.16
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 57¢	$5.42	$6.65	+$1.23	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.31	$3.44	-$0.87	80% 5031-1239 (6270)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 60¢	$0.97	$0.61	-$0.36	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,340.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.24

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,269.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$59.62

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

RN1

Over

Invested

$834.43

Value

$819.99

PnL

-$14.44

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$353.14

Value

$588.57

PnL

+$235.43

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$956.52

Value

$457.44

PnL

-$499.08

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$111

Value

$120

PnL

+$9

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$101.51

Value

$80.04

PnL

-$21.47

Record

50%

10792-10607 (21399)

Both legs:

Over$49.6872¢+$0.69

Under$51.8347.2¢-$22.16

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.42

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$1.23

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Over

Invested

$4.31

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$0.87

Record

80%

5031-1239 (6270)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.