Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CA Tigre win on 2026-10-30?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 41¢ · $705 held · ended Oct 30

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$704.93

Combined PnL

-$81.69

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 40.5¢

-44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$223.19

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$82.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.75

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$1.16

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$231.02	$294.32	+$63.3	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.3¢	$111.97	$227.74	+$115.77
└ No leg	Noavg 72.4¢	$119.05	$66.58	-$52.47
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$268.96	$177.68	-$91.29	57% 1681-1260 (2941)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.3¢	$218.01	$120.39	-$97.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.9¢	$50.96	$57.29	+$6.33
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 79¢	$226.56	$127.8	-$98.76	50% 10792-10607 (21399)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$29.09	$45.46	+$16.38	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$24.05	$25.51	+$1.46	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$16.61	$10.28	-$6.33	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.3	$7.85	+$1.55	58% 18599-13660 (32259)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$3.44	$6.28	+$2.84	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 46.7¢	$4.24	$5.4	+$1.16	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.9	$2.9	+$0	80% 5031-1239 (6270)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	54% 6204-5263 (11467)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$231.02

Value

$294.32

PnL

+$63.3

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

Both legs:

Yes$111.9729.3¢+$115.77

No$119.0572.4¢-$52.47

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$268.96

Value

$177.68

PnL

-$91.29

Record

57%

1681-1260 (2941)

Both legs:

No$218.0173.3¢-$97.62

Yes$50.9652.9¢+$6.33

fooooolCTR

Invested

$226.56

Value

$127.8

PnL

-$98.76

Record

50%

10792-10607 (21399)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$29.09

Value

$45.46

PnL

+$16.38

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$24.05

Value

$25.51

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$16.61

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$6.33

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$1.55

Record

58%

18599-13660 (32259)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$2.84

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$1.16

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

5031-1239 (6270)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6204-5263 (11467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.