Will CA Huracán win on 2026-10-30?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$35.92

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 87.5¢

+18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,439

Combined PnL+$34.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$282.72

Total Shares833

Combined PnL+$1.11

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 75.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$36.33	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
FO foooool	Noavg 87.5¢	$454.94	$454.7	-$0.24	50% 10792-10607 (21399)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$254.86	$255.43	+$0.57	57% 1681-1260 (2941)
CA Cannae	Noavg 60.8¢	$219.85	$220.41	+$0.56	53% 15892-14085 (29977)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 62.4¢	$116.45	$117.4	+$0.94	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
RN1	Noavg 62.8¢	$112.97	$109.68	-$3.29	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 63¢	$31.52	$30.52	-$1	50% 24909-24604 (49513)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$20.45	$21.31	+$0.85	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 87¢	$20.08	$20.19	+$0.12	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$8.3	$5.99	-$0.31	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 60¢	$5.07	$5.37	+$0.3	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.9	$5	+$1.1	58% 18599-13660 (32259)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,112.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.33

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

foooool

Invested

$454.94

Value

$454.7

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

10792-10607 (21399)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$254.86

Value

$255.43

PnL

+$0.57

Record

57%

1681-1260 (2941)

Cannae

Invested

$219.85

Value

$220.41

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

15892-14085 (29977)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$116.45

Value

$117.4

PnL

+$0.94

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

RN1

Invested

$112.97

Value

$109.68

PnL

-$3.29

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$31.52

Value

$30.52

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

24909-24604 (49513)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.45

Value

$21.31

PnL

+$0.85

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$20.08

Value

$20.19

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

PnL

+$1.1

Record

58%

18599-13660 (32259)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.