CA Boca Juniors vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$171.81

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 53.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,418

Combined PnL+$165.66

Over4 traders

Total Value$86.42

Total Shares227

Combined PnL+$6.15

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58.8¢	$714.14	$751.63	+$37.48	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 59¢	$411.47	$432.4	+$20.92	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 60.1¢	$316.81	$371.55	+$54.74	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 59¢	$177	$207	+$30	54% 4944-4172 (9116)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 62¢	$153.12	$153.16	+$0.04	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
0xheavy888	Underavg 59¢	$118	$124	+$1	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 50¢	$77.53	$96.14	+$18.61	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$56.5	$63.15	+$6.65	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$55.03	$58.12	+$3.08	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$19.88	$18.88	-$0.99	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$3.7	$3.8	+$0.45	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 62¢	$3.72	$3.54	-$0.21	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$0.54	$0.59	+$0.05	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$714.14

Value

$751.63

PnL

+$37.48

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$411.47

Value

$432.4

PnL

+$20.92

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$316.81

Value

$371.55

PnL

+$54.74

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$177

Value

$207

PnL

+$30

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$153.12

Value

$153.16

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$118

Value

$124

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$77.53

Value

$96.14

PnL

+$18.61

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.5

Value

$63.15

PnL

+$6.65

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$55.03

Value

$58.12

PnL

+$3.08

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.88

Value

$18.88

PnL

-$0.99

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.