CA Belgrano vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.4K
-$28.78
61.1¢ → 59.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 61.3¢ | $848.94 | $834.36 | -$18.35 | 50% 25606-25439 (51045) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 61.1¢ | $315.29 | $309.47 | -$8.39 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 60¢ | $120 | $120 | +$0 | 54% 4939-4170 (9109) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Underavg 61.2¢ | $87.24 | $85.55 | -$1.69 | 53% 16101-14270 (30371) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $41.4 | $41.4 | -$0.35 | 57% 29203-21595 (50798) |
Invested
$848.94
Value
$834.36
PnL
-$18.35
Record
50%
25606-25439 (51045)
VeryLucky888Invested
$315.29
Value
$309.47
PnL
-$8.39
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
Invested
$120
Value
$120
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4939-4170 (9109)
Invested
$87.24
Value
$85.55
PnL
-$1.69
Record
53%
16101-14270 (30371)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$41.4
PnL
-$0.35
Record
57%
29203-21595 (50798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.