Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes79¢No21¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$11.93

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 78.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,308

Combined PnL+$17.41

No6 traders

Total Value$278.43

Total Shares693

Combined PnL-$5.48

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 75.9¢	$830.79	$838.15	+$7.36	57% 1818-1368 (3186)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 27¢	$260.01	$260.01	-$0	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.2¢	$95.58	$131.93	+$36.35
└ No leg	Noavg 27¢	$164.43	$128.08	-$36.35
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 42¢	$187.39	$194.18	+$6.79	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yesavg 78¢	$175.54	$178.91	+$3.38	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$49.9	$40.5	-$9.4	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$21.59	$21.24	-$0.35	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 75.6¢	$16.67	$17.2	+$0.53	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$11.73	$17.06	+$5.32	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$14.13	$12.62	-$1.5	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$7.1	$7.85	+$0.75	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$9.5	$7.54	-$0.96	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$1.22	$1.29	+$0.07	49% 13032-13607 (26639)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$830.79

Value

$838.15

PnL

+$7.36

Record

57%

1818-1368 (3186)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$260.01

Value

$260.01

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$95.5857.2¢+$36.35

No$164.4327¢-$36.35

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$187.39

Value

$194.18

PnL

+$6.79

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yes

Invested

$175.54

Value

$178.91

PnL

+$3.38

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$49.9

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$9.4

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$21.59

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.67

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.73

Value

$17.06

PnL

+$5.32

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.13

Value

$12.62

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$7.54

PnL

-$0.96

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.