AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 97¢ · $810 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$810.47
-$2.48
97.1¢ → 96.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 97.1¢ | $757.94 | $755.62 | -$2.32 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 96.7¢ | $30.01 | $30.01 | +$0 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.7¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 | 42% 2199-2983 (5182) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.84 | -$0.15 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
RN1Invested
$757.94
Value
$755.62
PnL
-$2.32
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
poshposh<$100Invested
$30.01
Value
$30.01
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9181-6134 (15315)
Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
2199-2983 (5182)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.