AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$68.82
89.1¢ → 69.5¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 74.9¢ | $739.56 | $927.73 | +$188.17 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 74.9¢ | $601.29 | $581.78 | -$19.51 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 11¢ | $138.27 | $345.95 | +$207.67 | |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 11.5¢ | $76.81 | $280.34 | +$203.53 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 88.6¢ | $282.46 | $224.74 | -$57.72 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
AR ARocky33 | Overavg 90¢ | $197.13 | $127.04 | -$70.09 | 76% 3888-1239 (5127) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $75.65 | $49.3 | -$26.35 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $5.53 | $23.24 | +$17.71 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 22.2¢ | $5.33 | $7.07 | +$1.74 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
Invested
$739.56
Value
$927.73
PnL
+$188.17
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$76.81
Value
$280.34
PnL
+$203.53
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$282.46
Value
$224.74
PnL
-$57.72
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
Invested
$197.13
Value
$127.04
PnL
-$70.09
Record
76%
3888-1239 (5127)
Invested
$75.65
Value
$49.3
PnL
-$26.35
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
$23.24
PnL
+$17.71
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.33
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$1.74
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.