Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.5K
$7.33
75.8¢ → 77.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 76¢ | $720.72 | $716.25 | -$4.48 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
 RN1 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $622.67 | $633.08 | +$10.41 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $100.82 | $100.74 | -$0.08 | 52% 13520-12365 (25885) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $25.29 | $26.32 | +$1.04 | 53% 15687-13866 (29553) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $10.36 | $10.41 | +$0.05 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $5.64 | $6.03 | +$0.38 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
Invested
$720.72
Value
$716.25
PnL
-$4.48
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
RN1Invested
$622.67
Value
$633.08
PnL
+$10.41
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$100.82
Value
$100.74
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
13520-12365 (25885)
Invested
$25.29
Value
$26.32
PnL
+$1.04
Record
53%
15687-13866 (29553)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.36
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$6.03
PnL
+$0.38
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.