Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 44¢ · $438 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$437.65
-$0.26
30.3¢ → 43.5¢
+43% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $279.48 | $270.16 | -$9.32 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $65.6 | $60.97 | -$4.63 | 52% 13520-12365 (25885) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $42.9 | $55.9 | +$13 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $33.12 | $34.08 | +$0.96 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $16.82 | $16.54 | -$0.28 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
Invested
$279.48
Value
$270.16
PnL
-$9.32
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
Invested
$65.6
Value
$60.97
PnL
-$4.63
Record
52%
13520-12365 (25885)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$55.9
PnL
+$13
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
Invested
$33.12
Value
$34.08
PnL
+$0.96
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.82
Value
$16.54
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.