Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 20¢ · $38 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$38.46
-$10.11
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $29.43 | $15.19 | -$13.45 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $8.5 | $11.84 | +$3.34 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $11.43 | $11.43 | +$0 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.