Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-10-27?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 66¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 27

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 65.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares18,343

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,276

Combined PnL-$362.49

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Noavg 58¢	$9.8K	$8.8K	$-1.0K	51% 84-81 (165)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$82.31	54% 55411-47463 (102874)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.4¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$183.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.3¢	$850.2	$749.05	-$101.15
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$369.37	50% 24171-23783 (47954)
DE DelidelaDele	Noavg 53¢	$312.56	$306.66	-$5.9	46% 31-36 (67)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$224.45	$223.21	-$1.24	52% 13520-12365 (25885)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.4¢	$150.09	$165.39	+$15.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.4¢	$74.36	$57.82	-$16.54
CA Cannae	Noavg 53¢	$195.02	$191.34	-$3.68	53% 15687-13866 (29553)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52¢	$155.99	$155.99	+$4.5	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$105.51	$110.1	+$4.59	50% 215-218 (433)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$69	$72	+$3	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$46.13	$44.68	-$1.45	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 59¢	$35.97	$31.7	-$4.27	59% 29955-20673 (50628)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 55¢	$16.24	$19.34	+$3.1	60% 9159-6104 (15263)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$14.95	$18.02	+$3.07	67% 23053-11450 (34503)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$2.4	+$0.75	58% 18325-13460 (31785)

aibaby

Invested

$9,840.94

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

84-81 (165)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,340.51

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$82.31

Record

54%

55411-47463 (102874)

Both legs:

No$1,490.3157.4¢+$183.46

Yes$850.240.3¢-$101.15

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,021.83

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$369.37

Record

50%

24171-23783 (47954)

DelidelaDele

Invested

$312.56

Value

$306.66

PnL

-$5.9

Record

46%

31-36 (67)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$224.45

Value

$223.21

PnL

-$1.24

Record

52%

13520-12365 (25885)

Both legs:

No$150.0959.4¢+$15.3

Yes$74.3644.4¢-$16.54

Cannae

Invested

$195.02

Value

$191.34

PnL

-$3.68

Record

53%

15687-13866 (29553)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$155.99

Value

$155.99

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.51

Value

$110.1

PnL

+$4.59

Record

50%

215-218 (433)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69

Value

$72

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.13

Value

$44.68

PnL

-$1.45

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$35.97

Value

$31.7

PnL

-$4.27

Record

59%

29955-20673 (50628)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$16.24

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$3.1

Record

60%

9159-6104 (15263)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$14.95

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$3.07

Record

67%

23053-11450 (34503)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

18325-13460 (31785)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.