Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-10-30?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$43.63

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 95.2¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,601

Combined PnL-$52.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$164.83

Total Shares785

Combined PnL+$8.41

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeytheReal	Noavg 80¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$37.5	43% 34-46 (80)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.22	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 99.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
RN1	Noavg 99.2¢	$296.97	$296.5	-$0.48	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 91.1¢	$127.19	$126.27	-$0.92	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$84	$84	+$0	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$70.22	$77.68	+$7.46	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$50.91	$48.83	-$2.08	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.37	$4.53	+$0.16	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$2.2	$3.15	+$0.95	54% 6204-5263 (11467)

JoeytheReal

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$37.5

Record

43%

34-46 (80)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,316.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.22

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,298.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

RN1

Invested

$296.97

Value

$296.5

PnL

-$0.48

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$127.19

Value

$126.27

PnL

-$0.92

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

$84

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.22

Value

$77.68

PnL

+$7.46

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$50.91

Value

$48.83

PnL

-$2.08

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.16

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.95

Record

54%

6204-5263 (11467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.