archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 60¢ · $56K held

Yes60¢No40¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$55.6K

Combined PnL

$54.7K

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 60.5¢

+3312% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 60%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$55.6K

Total Shares91,825

Combined PnL+$54.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Rhabarberbarbarbar	Yesavg 1.5¢	$505.03	$20.2K	+$19.7K	57% 259-193 (452)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 2.3¢	$362.99	$9.4K	+$9.0K	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
IN influenz.eth	Yes	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$9.2K	44% 13384-17319 (30703)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Yes	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$7.5K	36% 8974-16138 (25112)
AH aHjCz	Yes	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$4.7K	45% 31908-39034 (70942)
0xdc3E831cad	Yes	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$2.4K	47% 1936-2175 (4111)
NO NoMoreMister	Yes	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$2.1K	69% 11356-5074 (16430)
CR cry.eth2	Yes	$151.25	$151.25	+$151.25	34% 11714-22996 (34710)
RA rainbowlilies<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.76	$30.25	+$29.49	38% 3019-4850 (7869)
LO locuspm<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.2	$6.05	+$5.85	16% 647-3472 (4119)

Rhabarberbarbarbar

Yes

Invested

$505.03

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$19.7K

Record

57%

259-193 (452)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$362.99

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

influenz.eth

Yes

Invested

$9,154.88

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

44%

13384-17319 (30703)

wokerjoesleeper

Yes

Invested

$7,450.51

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

36%

8974-16138 (25112)

aHjCz

Yes

Invested

$4,669.75

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

45%

31908-39034 (70942)

0xdc3E831cad

Yes

Invested

$2,420

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

47%

1936-2175 (4111)

NoMoreMister

Yes

Invested

$2,140.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

69%

11356-5074 (16430)

cry.eth2

Yes

Invested

$151.25

Value

$151.25

PnL

+$151.25

Record

34%

11714-22996 (34710)

rainbowlilies<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$30.25

PnL

+$29.49

Record

38%

3019-4850 (7869)

locuspm<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$5.85

Record

16%

647-3472 (4119)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 60%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.4%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.