Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + VVD?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $9K held

Yes9¢No91¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 9.5¢

+436% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares92,346

Combined PnL+$7.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RhabarberbarbarbarCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$505.03	$3.2K	+$2.7K	57% 259-193 (452)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$362.99	$1.5K	+$1.1K	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
IN influenz.ethCTR	Yes	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.4K	44% 13385-17319 (30704)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yes	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.2K	36% 8974-16139 (25113)
AH aHjCzCTR	Yes	$782.84	$782.84	+$782.84	45% 31906-39016 (70922)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yes	$380	$380	+$380	47% 1936-2175 (4111)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$336.04	$336.04	+$336.04	69% 11357-5074 (16431)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yes	$23.75	$23.75	+$23.75	34% 11768-23001 (34769)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.76	$4.75	+$3.99	38% 3017-4847 (7864)
LO locuspmCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.2	$0.95	+$0.75	16% 647-3473 (4120)

RhabarberbarbarbarCTR

Yes

Invested

$505.03

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

57%

259-193 (452)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$362.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

influenz.ethCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,437.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

44%

13385-17319 (30704)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,169.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

36%

8974-16139 (25113)

aHjCzCTR

Yes

Invested

$782.84

Value

$782.84

PnL

+$782.84

Record

45%

31906-39016 (70922)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Yes

Invested

$380

Value

$380

PnL

+$380

Record

47%

1936-2175 (4111)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.04

Value

$336.04

PnL

+$336.04

Record

69%

11357-5074 (16431)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.75

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$23.75

Record

34%

11768-23001 (34769)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$3.99

Record

38%

3017-4847 (7864)

locuspmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

16%

647-3473 (4120)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.9%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$819.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

919.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.