archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA + D66?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 57¢ · $52K held
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
10
Yes 100%
$51.9K
$51.0K
1.8¢ → 56.5¢
+3087% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 57%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- $50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
83h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rhabarberbarbarbar | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $505.03 | $18.8K | +$18.3K | 57% 259-193 (452) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $362.99 | $8.7K | +$8.4K | 50% 65438-65762 (131200) |
IN influenz.eth | Yes | $8.5K | $8.5K | +$8.5K | 44% 13383-17316 (30699) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | Yes | $7.0K | $7.0K | +$7.0K | 36% 8974-16135 (25109) |
AH aHjCz | Yes | $4.4K | $4.4K | +$4.4K | 45% 31889-38995 (70884) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Yes | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$2.3K | 47% 1936-2175 (4111) |
NO NoMoreMister | Yes | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$2.0K | 69% 11354-5074 (16428) |
CR cry.eth2 | Yes | $141.25 | $141.25 | +$141.25 | 34% 11706-22983 (34689) |
RA rainbowlilies<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.76 | $28.25 | +$27.49 | 38% 3016-4844 (7860) |
LO locuspm<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.2 | $5.65 | +$5.45 | 16% 647-3450 (4097) |
RhabarberbarbarbarInvested
$505.03
Value
$18.8K
PnL
+$18.3K
Record
57%
259-193 (452)
Invested
$362.99
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$8.4K
Record
50%
65438-65762 (131200)
Invested
$8,549.6
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$8.5K
Record
44%
13383-17316 (30699)
Invested
$6,957.91
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$7.0K
Record
36%
8974-16135 (25109)
Invested
$4,361
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$4.4K
Record
45%
31889-38995 (70884)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$2,260
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
47%
1936-2175 (4111)
Invested
$1,998.57
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
69%
11354-5074 (16428)
Invested
$141.25
Value
$141.25
PnL
+$141.25
Record
34%
11706-22983 (34689)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$28.25
PnL
+$27.49
Record
38%
3016-4844 (7860)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$5.45
Record
16%
647-3450 (4097)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Rhabarberbarbarbar
Yes — $18.8K
cigarettes
Yes — $8.7K
influenz.eth
Yes — $8.5K
wokerjoesleeper
Yes — $7.0K
aHjCz
Yes — $4.4K
0xdc3E831cad
Yes — $2.3K
NoMoreMister
Yes — $2.0K
cry.eth2
Yes — $141.25
rainbowlilies
Yes — $28.25
locuspm
Yes — $5.65